Thursday, July 10, 2014

Forecast: Usher Headed For Major Strides, Top 5 Remain Stable



New Entries & High Climbers
After adding two new entries last week (for a total of 4 since 2012), Usher's latest release, "She Came To Give It To You (feat. Nicki Minaj)" is set to be the top debut on this week's chart. Currently ranked at #14 on the building chart through this week's halfway mark, it's entirely possible that the track barely winds up within the top 20 when the week concludes, but an estimate around #25 to #30 would be a lot more reasonable. It's currently burning up in streaming and voting points, but US radio airplay has been nearly nonexistent at this point. Given that, I'm guessing only a handful of points will be derived from radio plays, which could cause it to open softer than expected. As I said earlier, a final week position between 25-30 would be a solid start and a win for Usher (who has had only one top 10 hit since 2012). It's guaranteed to be Nicki's 20th chart entry, further upping her lead as the artist with the most Hot 50 chart entries. Rihanna ranks in 2nd place with 18.

Usher's other tracks that will hold on the chart from last week (the Disclosure remix of "Good Kisser" and Chris Brown's "New Flame", which features Usher and Rick Ross) should also be able to muster up some decent business. "Good Kisser (Remix)", likely be the stronger of the two, ranks at #26 at the midweek stage. Despite a huge growth (it ranked at #46 when the final numbers came in last week), it has dropped off several positions from the start of the week (it at one point ranked at #20), so it's likely to drop more. It will likely wind up below "She Came To Give It To You (feat. Nicki Minaj)" this week, with a final rank between #35 to #40 being a good estimate.

Chris Brown's "New Flame" has had some trouble ranking up points this week (being snubbed by radio and other platforms), but could muster a several position increase at best. It's currently ranked at #40, but has held that position throughout the entire week so far. That leads me to believe it will hold strong through the week's end, with a final position just above or just below #40 likely.

T.I.'s "No Mediocre (feat. Iggy Azalea)" (which started off at a strong rank of #38 last week) is currently ranked at #11 through the midway stage, which is a huge lift of 27 positions. While it might wind up within the top 20, it's unlikely to reach the top 10... we'll see.

Tinashe's "2 On (feat. SchoolBoy Q)" is ranked at #21 at the midweek stage (it reached as high as #19  earlier this week), so I'm guessing it'll wind up with a 4 to 5 position gain from last week. More news soon.

Tracks Likely To Exit
- "Ultraviolence" by Lana Del Rey
- "Bloodstream" by Ed Sheeran

Top 5 Happenings
Maroon 5 is set to claim a second frame at #1, with Kiesza likely to reach the #2 for a fifth week with "Hideaway". That would put her in the top 2 for 11 weeks, the longest run in the region since OneRepublic's "Counting Stars" commanded the region for 13 straight weeks earlier this year. That song later went on to become the most successful single in my chart's history and is on its way to #1 for the end of 2014. Kiesza's other single ("Giant In My Heart") could snag the #3 position; Sanna Nielsen's former 3 week #1 "Undo" could ease 3-4 and Clean Bandit's "Rather Be" could drop 4-5 after peaking at #4 for 3 frames.

Come back for more news!

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