Wednesday, July 16, 2014

Hot 50 Forecast: Vita Chambers For Top 5, VÉRITÉ and DJ Fresh For Top Openings


With the week halfway over, and 3 days left to go, let's take a look at just how well (or poorly) tracks are doing relative to their position last week. Remember, nothing is confirmed just yet. All ranks will be finalized this weekend. Additionally, there has been some slight confusion: the chart dated July 17th was supposed to be uploaded at the end of last week, but with a newly updated format and a major reconstruction of the video component, things got a little hectic. All data below reflects songs impacting or moving on the chart dated July 24th (sorry for the confusion). Another post will reflect the first 3 days of the Social Songs 100 (previously titled the Voter's Top 100). Said post will arrive tomorrow, given that the Social Songs 100 only counts data Monday through Friday. Other than that, here we go!

New Entries and High Climbers
Due to the double release of the official video, Vita Chambers is set to post a major move within the top 10. After rounding out the top 10 last week (with a 7-10 fall), the track is expected to reach at least #5, with a move to #4 being possible. This is one of the few times that we will also see a rise on the Social Songs 100 alongside a video release, as "A+D" is set to fly into the top 10 (more on that tomorrow). If it does soar into the top 5 on the official Hot 50, it will become Vita's 4th consecutive top 5 single. Previously, her debut "Fix You" reigned at #1 for 4 consecutive weeks, and her follow ups "Masquerade" and "What If?" reached numbers 2 and 3 respectively.

Meanwhile, VÉRITÉ's "Strange Enough" (which was poised to score the top debut of the week) is set for a moderate entry that could range anywhere from #20-40. It really all depends on how well it holds throughout the rest of the frame. Currently at #5 on the Social Songs 100, it's highly likely that "Strange Enough" winds up doing strong business this week. I'm predicting a mid-20s debut.

On the other hand, the newly re-worked song "Flashlight" by Ellie Goulding and DJ Fresh should score a killer debut on this week's Hot 50 thanks in part to its massive presence on the Social Songs 100. Currently sitting at #1, the track was added onto the chart on Tuesday night and quickly shuffled above two songs that kept switching places at the top (Mandy Rain's "RIOT" and Vita Chambers' "A+D"). It currently accounts for 3% of all votes tallied (up and down combined), and has set a new record for the highest level of approval rating for any #1 song to date (in the past 12 weeks) with a 97.2% approval rating. Nicki Minaj's "Pills N Potions" previously held the record when the track had a 70% approval rating in the 4th week of voting.

Other new entries set for moderate debuts include Jess Glynne's "Right Here" (which debuted at #52 last week), The Madden Brothers' "We Are Done" (which debuted at #51 last week), Paloma Faith's "Only Love Can Hurt Like This" and Sigma featuring Paloma Faith with "Changing". Mandy Rain might also make a debut with "RIOT".

Top 5 Happenings
Maroon 5's "Maps" is set to reign on the chart for yet a third week, with Kiesza's "Hideaway" stationed at #2 for a 6th week, and Kiesza's "Giant In My Heart" is set for a second week at #3. Sanna Nielsen's "Undo" is set for another week at #4, and Vita Chambers is set to pull into the 5th place position with "A+D". Clean Bandit is set to drop at least two or three positions. "Chandelier" by Sia and "Am I Wrong" by Nico & Vinz could rank 6th and 7th (or vice versa). More on the top 10 in a minute.

Come back for the Social Songs 100 forecast!

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