It's going to be along week ahead. With 8 major releases hitting physical and digital shelves this week, it's anyone's guess as to who comes out as the weekly bestseller. Will it be Tove Lo, Blake Shelton, Lady Antebellum, Prince, 3RDEYEGIRL, The Script, Steve Aoki or Colbie Caillat? Okay maybe I've overstating it, but there are at least two albums that have their eye on the top slot. At least two. Let's take a look at the contenders. Be sure to read through the whole list before reading my overview at the end of the post.
Blake Shelton
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While Blake Shelton has been a Country genre superstar since his 2001 debut, it wasn't until the 2010's decade that his work became widely appreciated by mainstream audiences. Bolstered by a taut release date, his 2011 album, Red River Blue, debuted at #1 in the United States on sales of 116,000. By standards, that would have been pretty grim start on any other frame in 2011. Just a few weeks before, Born This Way debuted at #1 on sales of 1 million copies.
When the end of 2012 rolled around, another new album from Shelton had emerged. Cheers, it's Christmas, while failing to reach the United States top 5, sold over 500,000 and remained popular with Christmas album purchasers over a year after its release. Early 2013 brought his most popular album to date and the 9th most popular album of 2013 in the United States: Based On A True Story... While failing to reach #1, it produced a string of 4 #1 Country singles.
Unfortunately, Bringing Back the Sunshine failed to create a mainstream hit with its lead single ("Neon Light"), unlike his last album, which could weaken sales. However, being the most popular coach on the hit United States television show The Voice (which helped propel sales of his last album), could give Shelton's Bringing Back the Sunshine the push it needs to become the frame's top seller.
Queen of the CloudsTove Lo
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A September 30th release date for her debut album seemed almost perfect, except for the fact that "Habits" still hasn't climaxed in popularity. That makes the US release Queen of the Clouds seem a little pre-mature. Still, this could end up being a good thing. Maybe the continued popularity of "Habits" could keep album sales steady for several weeks? It'll be hard to tell but all I can assure you of is that Queen of the Clouds won't be the week's best seller.
The Script
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The Script has had varying 'degrees' of success in the United States (pun intended for hardcore fans), with their second and third albums starting with sales between 25,000-50,000 copies sold. Their first had sales too low to compare. However, with No Sound Without Silence, the band has taken a completely different path in terms of promotion.
"Superheroes", the first single from No Sound Without Silence, has been vigorously promoted to Adult Pop and Contemporary radio formats, a style that caters to more matured audience (typically). That demographic in particular has been known to cling on to specific songs and groups, which have led to some albums or singles staying popular for a significant period of time. In a case like Pharrell's "Happy", the track became so popular on traditional Mainstream/Top 40 radio that it started getting adds at genre specific stations as well. That led to an extended chart run and pushed sales of the song's parent album (GIRL) forward. While the success of "Superheroes" doesn't really compare to that of "Happy", it is possible that a much more contained version of the story is repeated. In other words, No Sound Without Silence should be able to become the band's most popular record to date (in terms of first week sales in the United States), but will a huge amount of competition stunt its growth?
Lady Antebellum
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Other than Prince, of course, Lady Antebellum has been a powerhouse when it comes to album sales. After breaking out with the singles "I Run to You" and "Need You Now" in 2009, the group's second album (Need You Now) shifted over 450,000 copies in its first week of being on sale. Their third album, released 20 months later, saw sales of approximately 350,000 a still large sum. The group's Holiday album (released in late 2012), while failing to reach #1, became a staple in the long list of Christmas releases and has since been sold over 500,000 (note figures for the other two releases were first week only). 2013's Golden opened with sales of 160,000 copies, a fabulous start given that album sales in general were down significantly since the group had last released a proper, non-Holiday album.
With even more erosion and the presence of a lone Mainstream/Top 40 single ("Bartender"), 747 could have a bit of trouble with reaching 100,000 (which would be a sharp drop from Golden). Still, 747 has a decent shot at claiming the top position.
Prince
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Almost everyone has heard of Prince (also known as at least 20 other names), whether it be through his standard discography or his contributions to the Purple Rain soundtrack (one of the 20 most successful albums in the United States). He has released
With that being said, the release date and promotion for ART OFFICIAL AGE seemingly popped out of nowhere. With no supported singles or any sort of high profile appearances, it is hard to imagine this breaking first week sales of 80,000 in the United States. On the worldwide front, however, ART OFFICIAL AGE is the best selling album (at the moment), with the next biggest selling new release also being delivered by Prince. What? Yep. You read it correctly.
Prince & 3RDEYEGIRL
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While it might be extremely rare for an artist to drop two separate albums on the same day (two you can't buy together), this sort of practice seems to be somewhat normal for Prince. He's the sort of artist that would release half a dozen albums in a single year just to get out of a record contract.
The lower profile album of the two he is releasing this week, PLECTRUMELECTRUM, created in collaboration with his all female band 3RDEYEGIRL, is bound to start with a much lower weekly total. Maybe 40,000? We'll have to wait and see.
Steve Aoki
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Let's face it. Steve Aoki could never end up reaching #1 in the United States. He appears to be too extreme with his DJ techniques and while some of his material is fun and solid, there's a substantial amount of people who clearly dislike his tracks (notably "Delirious").
Either way, Neon Future 1 is an interesting case. It's poised to be one of the world's most popular new releases (behind only the new albums from Prince), but should underwhelm in the United States. I'm conservatively expecting 45,000 to 55,000 copies in the United States.
Gypsy HeartColbie Caillat
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Colbie Caillat used to be a massive album seller. Keywords used to be. Unfortunately, the odd promotion of her new album will likely cause her winning streak to come to a screeching halt. It looks like Gypsy Heart could wind up as one of the week's worst performing new releases, currently barely holding within the top 20 on the tracking chart. To compare, her three prior studio albums all became massive successes, all reaching the top 10 in the United States. My guess is that Gypsy Heart will wind up with 45,000 copies sold in its first week, but that itself might be asking a little too much.
Analysis
Based on my quick looks and data above, it seems that Blake Shelton's Bringing Back the Sunshine will rival Lady Antebellum's 747 to claim this week's top debut. Both should open past sales of 110,000 copies, and like last week, the race could come down to the wire, with the winner of the week being determined by just a few hundred copies.
Prince's ART OFFICIAL AGE should easily wind up in 3rd place with maybe 80,000-90,000 copies sold. Tove Lo's Queen of the Clouds should wind up in 4th place with perhaps 60,000 copies sold. The Script's No Sound Without Silence could place 5th with 50,000. Steve Aoki, Colbie Caillat and 3RDEYEGIRL will probably scramble for 6th, 7th and 8th place.
Update:
New predictions are saying that Blake Shelton's album is expected to sell 85,000-100,000 copies (less than 50% of the sales level that his last album did). Lady Antebellum is expected to sell 65,000-80,000 with their new album. Therefore, all sales prediction for the other albums are down at least 15,000 copies.
Come back for more posts and check this post later this week to see where the albums finally rank!
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